Mortgage Meltdown, Stock Implosion - Whose Fault?
Everyone’s worried. The media and candidates are having a field day blaming their favorite scapegoat. Should we fire bank CEO’s? Should we nationalize banks? And how can we “Make sure this never happens again?”
Congress wants to make laws (of course) with more stringent regulations (that will probably only screw the small investor). So, let’s take a step back and take an objective view of how this problem developed.
Craig Nichols wrote me last month with a very perceptive comment about the “mortgage meltdown: “The banks were fulfilling a mandate of Congress. Congress caused this mess. The Community Reinvestment Act of 1995 was revised/written to relax the underwriting standards, so that more people could qualify for loans to purchase houses.”
Let’s follow the trail from here.
First, let’s understand, banks like insurance companies lend money (or write policies) based on a mathematical assessment of risk - it’s called underwriting. For banks, based on credit score, debt to income ratio and other parameters, the lender can decide to whom and how much to lend to keep defaults (losing the investor’s money) to a minimum.
Congress of course failed to understand this (or more likely ignored this) so they could get a social pat on the back from constituents who could now buy homes.
Now we get to the next disconnect. The banks certainly knew the consequences of “relaxing their underwriting standards”. However, with a mandate and pressure from Congress and the opportunity to make literally Billions in more revenue, the entire system of checks and balances was subverted.
Qualification requirements were certainly relaxed, but this is not what caused the major damage. To really open the revenue floodgates that the banks’ shareholders were now expecting, the banks had to vastly expand the pool of available homebuyers. They did this with the indiscriminate use of ”no doc”, “stated income” and “adjustable rate mortgages (ARM)”.
“No doc” and “stated income” allowed borrowers with decent credit scores to lie about their income. Thus, allowing many who clearly would not qualify based on their ability to make the mortgage payments to get loans.
The ARM’s gamed the underwriting system, since qualification was based on the income needed to make the payments on the abnormally low first 6 mo or 1 year “teaser rate”. These rates got so ridiculous that homebuyers making $30,000 a year were qualifying to buy $500,000 homes!
But, the real killer with the ARM was, that when the rate re-adjusted, to a higher than average interest rate, default was virtually inevitable. And this sowed the seeds for the enormous disaster that has come to pass.
So, how did the stock market become involved. Well, most banks do not hold the mortgage notes they lend on. They package these notes into “Mortgage Backed Securities” (MBS) and sell them to Wall St with the help of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae - 2 semi-private (until now) corporations.
Now, these 2 corporations (probably also motivated by greed) did something that was financially unconscionable and unethical. They packaged and sold these loans to Wall St as if they were “A” paper with investors paying premium pricing, for loans that were very likely to go into default. That paper was actually worse than “sub-prime” because the possibility of default was almost certain. I doubt Wall St would have bought these loans or at least downgraded them to junk bonds, if they knew the real risk.
So, when the foreclosures started mounting, everyone from the banks to the big Wall St brokerages houses went down, precipitating a worldwide financial crisis.
Personally, I don’t know how to fix this. It is certainly unclear whether the 100’s of billions of dollars are going to make a difference or even the right difference. However, do have a suggestion to help avoid having this type of thing happen again.
First, we don’t need more regulations. It wasn’t the banks that started this, it was Congress who made a bad law, whose consequences they didn’t forsee or chose to ignore. After that, the profit motive, greed and human nature (none of which is going to change) took over.
So, what can we do, to protect us from our lawmakers. In the Constitution, we have checks and balances. An executive branch has the power veto, and the judiciary has power to strike down bad laws (after the fact).
What we need is a separate branch of government that can quash bad laws or laws with serious “unintended” consequences before everyone suffers. So, let’s set up a new branch of government - the Oversight of Unintended Consequences”. A branch that would be free political considerations and could point out to the American people and Congress the serious repercussions of ill-thought out laws and regulations. Perhaps, there could a sort of “legal underwriting” that could assign a “threat score” to any proposed regulation. Only proposals with a threat score under a certain threshold would be eligible to become law.
What we have now is the consequence of a very bad law, that took 13 years to threaten total financial meltdown. And by the way, even if the 700 billion solves the problem, it’s a cost that is coming out of our pockets, and is weaking the economic strength of our country.
And how many other “bad laws” are going to have very unpleasant consequences that we have not yet forseen. We have the intellectual resources and technology to make such forecasting a reality. Maybe we should consider it before the next disaster overtakes us.

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Richard Odessey has been investing in Real Estate since 1999 and have bought, managed and sold over $5MM in assets over that time period. He has created a national network of RE investors that are a source of continual on-the-ground intelligence. Richard has also developed unique and proprietary tools to zero in on only high profit-low risk transactions.


